Spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Buenos Aires Province, and its relation to rodent distribution, agricultural and demographic variables
Spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Buenos Aires Province, and its relation to rodent distribution, agricultural and demographic variables
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-3156.2004.01218.x
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Padula, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Busch, M;Cavia, R;Padula, P
我们研究了阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯省1998 - 2001年汉坦病毒肺综合征（HPS）病例的时空分布。HPS是一种严重的病毒性疾病，其天然宿主是Sigmodontinae亚科（鼠科）的啮齿动物，并且发生在南美洲和北美洲的许多国家。我们考虑了两种空间安排：18.5x18.5 km（2）的单元;省，省的政治细分，作为空间单位。我们用方差/平均值指数测试了每个细胞和每月病例数的泊松分布的偏离，而空间和时间聚类之间的相互作用通过Knox和Mantel测试进行了测试。我们构建了概率图，其中每个部门的HPS率被视为根据人口、面积以及人口和面积的乘积的Poisson变量。我们分析了啮齿动物分布，环境和人口统计学变量和HPS病例之间的关系进行初步的单变量分析，我们选择的变量进入一般线性模型。我们发现病例的空间和时间分布都具有很强的聚集性。时空的相互作用似乎与一个强大的季节性和存在的特定生态条件，而不是流行病的传播疾病。HPS病例在布宜诺斯艾利斯省各部门之间分布的主要解释变量是人口、啮齿动物Oxymycterus rufus的分布和蒸散量。最后两个变量可能是水库有利生态条件的指标，其中包括本研究未考虑的其他变量。
We studied the spatial and temporal distribution of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) cases from 1998 to 2001 in the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. HPS is a severe viral disease whose natural reservoir are rodents of the subfamily Sigmodontinae (Muridae) and which occurs in many countries of South and North America. We considered two spatial arrangements: cells of 18.5x18.5 km(2); and departments, the political subdivisions of the province, as spatial units. We tested the departure from a Poisson distribution of the number of cases per cell and per month with the Variance/Mean index, while the interaction between spatial and temporal clustering was tested by means of the Knox and Mantel tests. We constructed probability maps in which the HPS rates per department were considered Poisson variates according to population, area and the product of population and area. We analysed the relation between rodent distribution, environmental and demographic variables and HPS cases conducting preliminary univariate analysis from which we selected variables to enter in general linearized models. We found that both the spatial and temporal distribution of cases is strongly aggregated. The spatiotemporal interaction appears to be related to a strong seasonality and the existence of particular ecological conditions rather than epidemic transmission of the disease. The main explanatory variables for the distribution of HPS cases among the departments of the Buenos Aires Province were human population, the distribution of the rodent Oxymycterus rufus and evapotranspiration. The last two variables are probably indicators of favourable ecological conditions for the reservoirs, which encompass other variables not taken into account in this study.