Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land-use change in response to growing food needs
Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land-use change in response to growing food needs
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-5451-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Murray-Rust, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hardacre, C. J.;Palmer, P. I.;Murray-Rust, D.
我们量化了土地利用变化的影响，这是由我们对粮食和生物燃料生产不断增长的需求决定的，相对于1990年，2015年和2030年对异戊二烯排放和随后的大气氧化剂化学的影响，忽略了这一时期的复合气候变化影响。在IPCC AR 4/SRES情景A1和B1的广泛指导下，我们估计了1990-2050年土地利用变化实现的总体（n = 1000）异戊二烯排放。我们还使用两种情景来描述土地利用变化，以解决预计的生物燃料使用问题：（1）假设世界各国政府在2009年后不改变生物燃料政策，（2）假设世界各国政府制定生物燃料政策的目的是将大气中的二氧化碳当量保持在450 ppm。我们提出了集合的中位数和四分位距（IQR）统计数据，并表明在-1.50 x 10（12）m（2）到+6.06 x 10（12）m（2）之间的土地利用变化被发现驱动全球异戊二烯负担的变化，2015年为-3.5到+2.8 Tgyr（-1），2030年为-7.7到+6.4 Tgyr（-1）。我们使用对应于这些排放估计的中位数和IQR的土地利用变化实现来驱动GEOS-Chem全球3-D化学传输模型，以研究异戊二烯，氮氧化物（NO+NO2）和臭氧（O-3）的大气浓度和沉积的全球和区域表面浓度的扰动。我们发现，在整个次大陆地区的每月表面O-3增加了0.1-0.8 ppb，相对于零土地利用变化计算，在高（低）氮氧化物环境中的表面异戊二烯的增加（减少）驱动。在局部尺度（4度x5度），我们发现，在温带北美，中国和欧亚大陆北部，由于生物燃料生产的短轮伐期矮林作物种植的异戊二烯排放量大幅增加，地表O-3增加了5-12 ppb。
We quantify the impact of land-use change, determined by our growing demand for food and biofuel production, on isoprene emissions and subsequent atmospheric oxidant chemistry in 2015 and 2030, relative to 1990, ignoring compound climate change effects over that period. We estimate isoprene emissions from an ensemble (n = 1000) of land-use change realizations from 1990-2050, broadly guided by the IPCC AR4/SRES scenarios A1 and B1. We also superimpose land-use change required to address projected biofuel usage using two scenarios: (1) assuming that world governments make no changes to biofuel policy after 2009, and (2) assuming that world governments develop biofuel policy with the aim of keeping equivalent atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. We present the median and interquartile range (IQR) statistics of the ensemble and show that land-use change between -1.50 x 10(12) m(2) to +6.06 x 10(12) m(2) was found to drive changes in the global isoprene burden of -3.5 to +2.8 Tgyr(-1) in 2015 and -7.7 to +6.4 Tgyr(-1) in 2030. We use land-use change realizations corresponding to the median and IQR of these emission estimates to drive the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemistry transport model to investigate the perturbation to global and regional surface concentrations of isoprene, nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2), and the atmospheric concentration and deposition of ozone (O-3). We show that across subcontinental regions the monthly surface O-3 increases by 0.1-0.8 ppb, relative to a zero land-use change calculation, driven by increases (decreases) in surface isoprene in high (low) NOx environments. At the local scale (4 degrees x 5 degrees) we find that surface O-3 increases by 5-12 ppb over temperate North America, China and boreal Eurasia, driven by large increases in isoprene emissions from short-rotation coppice crop cultivation for biofuel production.