Vector status of Aedes species determines geographical risk of autochthonous Zika virus establishment.
Vector status of Aedes species determines geographical risk of autochthonous Zika virus establishment.
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伊蚊物种的媒介状况决定了寨卡病毒本地传播的地理风险。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0005487
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发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sarkar S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gardner L;Chen N;Sarkar S
2015-16 年起源于拉丁美洲的寨卡病毒大流行导致人们预测该疾病将在全球范围内发生灾难性传播。自2015年5月巴西爆发寨卡病毒以来，已有60多个国家和地区报告寨卡病毒本地传播，确诊病例和疑似病例超过75万例。由于其范围扩大，人们的注意力集中在可能的传播模式上，其中涉及伊蚊物种的基于节肢动物媒介的疾病传播周期被认为是最重要的。其他令人担忧的原因是寨卡病和格林-巴利综合征 (GBS) 之间出现的新联系，以及曾经罕见的先天性疾病小头畸形。与登革热和基孔肯雅热一样，寨卡病毒的地理分布被认为受到其主要病媒蚊种伊蚊的出现的限制。埃及伊蚊，可能还有伊蚊。白纹伊蚊。而艾伊.白纹伊蚊种群比伊蚊种群分布更广泛。埃及伊蚊，这些物种作为寨卡病毒载体的相对能力尚不清楚。本文报告的分析提出了一个全球风险模型，该模型独立考虑每个媒介物种的作用，并量化寨卡病毒传播到新地区的潜在风险。评估了六种情景，分配给 Ae 的权重各不相同。白纹伊蚊作为可能的传播媒介。这些情景受到极端假设的限制，即传播是由航空旅行和AE驱动的。埃及伊蚊单独存在并由两个物种同等驱动传播。对于每种情况，都会优先考虑寨卡疫情爆发风险最高的目的地城市，以及受影响地区的源城市。最后，还对寨卡传播风险最高的洲际航空旅行路线进行了排名。比较不同场景的结果。分析结果表明，如果 Ae.埃及伊蚊是唯一有效的寨卡病毒传播媒介，因此风险在地理上是有限的；北美主要到佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州。然而，如果Ae.如果白纹伊蚊被证明是寨卡病毒的有效传播媒介，但目前情况似乎并非如此，那么在包括加拿大和智利在内的美洲所有地区、西欧大部分地区、澳大利亚、新西兰以及南亚和东亚地区都存在当地定植的风险，而由于最近在新加坡出现寨卡病毒，亚洲的风险大幅增加。从 1952 年首次在人类中发现寨卡病毒到 2007 年，寨卡疾病的爆发仅限于赤道非洲和亚洲热带地区的小规模孤立流行病。然而，最近的疫情于 2015 年 5 月在巴西爆发，截至 2016 年 10 月，估计病例数超过 75 万，并确认在 60 多个国家发生本地传播。与登革热和基孔肯雅热一样，寨卡病毒也由埃及伊蚊传播，也可能由白纹伊蚊等其他物种传播。当受感染的旅行者从受影响地区前往当地尚未形成寨卡疾病周期但已知和潜在媒介物种已建立种群的地区时，就会发生病毒的地理传播。我们使用航空旅行数据和白伊蚊生态媒介栖息地适宜性模型来估计寨卡病毒输入和进入新地区的风险。埃及伊蚊和伊蚊。白纹伊蚊。鉴于伊蚊传播能力的不确定性，我们比较了航空旅行和伊蚊传播时的地理风险状况。埃及伊蚊单独存在，由航空旅行和这两个物种推动传播。我们的结论是，在后一种情况下，寨卡病毒传播的全球风险要高得多，尽管这种可能性最小。
The 2015-16 Zika virus pandemic originating in Latin America led to predictions of a catastrophic global spread of the disease. Since the current outbreak began in Brazil in May 2015 local transmission of Zika has been reported in over 60 countries and territories, with over 750 thousand confirmed and suspected cases. As a result of its range expansion attention has focused on possible modes of transmission, of which the arthropod vector-based disease spread cycle involving Aedes species is believed to be the most important. Additional causes of concern are the emerging new links between Zika disease and Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS), and a once rare congenital disease, microcephaly. Like dengue and chikungunya, the geographic establishment of Zika is thought to be limited by the occurrence of its principal vector mosquito species, Ae. aegypti and, possibly, Ae. albopictus. While Ae. albopictus populations are more widely established than those of Ae. aegypti, the relative competence of these species as a Zika vector is unknown. The analysis reported here presents a global risk model that considers the role of each vector species independently, and quantifies the potential spreading risk of Zika into new regions. Six scenarios are evaluated which vary in the weight assigned to Ae. albopictus as a possible spreading vector. The scenarios are bounded by the extreme assumptions that spread is driven by air travel and Ae. aegypti presence alone and spread driven equally by both species. For each scenario destination cities at highest risk of Zika outbreaks are prioritized, as are source cities in affected regions. Finally, intercontinental air travel routes that pose the highest risk for Zika spread are also ranked. The results are compared between scenarios. Results from the analysis reveal that if Ae. aegypti is the only competent Zika vector, then risk is geographically limited; in North America mainly to Florida and Texas. However, if Ae. albopictus proves to be a competent vector of Zika, which does not yet appear to be the case, then there is risk of local establishment in all American regions including Canada and Chile, much of Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, as well as South and East Asia, with a substantial increase in risk to Asia due to the more recent local establishment of Zika in Singapore. Between 1952, when the Zika virus was first found in humans, and 2007 Zika disease outbreaks were limited to small isolated epidemics in equatorial Africa and tropical Asia. However, the recent outbreak, which began in Brazil in May 2015, resulted over 750 thousand estimated cases and confirmed local transmission in more than 60 countries by October, 2016. Like dengue and chikungunya, Zika is spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and possibly, other species including Aedes albopictus. Geographic spread of the virus occurs when infected travelers travel from affected regions to ones without an established local Zika disease cycle, but in which the known and potential vector species have established populations. We estimate the risk of Zika importation and establishment into new regions using air travel data and ecological vector habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Given the uncertainties surrounding the vectorial competence of Aedes mosquitoes, we compare the geographic risk profiles when spread is driven by air travel and Ae. aegypti presence alone, with spread driven by air travel and both species. We conclude that there is a much higher global risk of Zika spread under the latter scenario, although it is the least likely.