Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?
Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?
复制标题
英国和欧元区的商业周期是否变得更加相关？
DOI：
10.1177/002795010218200107
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
James Mitchell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Massmann;James Mitchell
最近的估计表明，与上世纪90年代初相比，英国的商业周期更接近欧元区的商业周期。本文研究了这一现象是否伴随着英国和欧元区经济周期相关性的增强。考虑到商业周期的一系列替代措施，我们发现，使用40年的月度工业生产数据，没有明确的证据表明英国和欧元区商业周期之间的相关性持续增加。相反，在20世纪90年代，英国和欧元区商业周期之间的相关性相对于历史水平一直不稳定。直到最近，即自1997年以来，英国才与欧元区变得更加相关，尽管相关水平低于与非欧元区国家的相关水平。重要的是，这些关系的强度对如何衡量商业周期很敏感。因此，在使用商业周期估计来测试英国和欧元区商业周期之间的关系时，应谨慎行事。
Recent estimates suggest that the UK business cycle is closer to the Eurozone business cycle than it was in the early 1990s. This paper investigates whether this phenomenon has been accompanied by increased correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles. Considering a range of alternative measures of the business cycle we find, using 40 years of monthly industrial production data, no clear evidence for a sustained increase in correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles. Instead, in the 1990s, the correlation between UK and Eurozone business cycles has been volatile relative to historical levels. It is only recently, i.e. since 1997, that the UK has become more correlated with the Eurozone, although the level of correlation is lower than against non-Eurozone countries. Importantly, the strength of these relationships is sensitive to how the business cycle is measured. Care should therefore be exercised when using business cycles estimates to test the relationship between UK and Eurozone business cycles.