Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change
Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl061793
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发表时间：
2015-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
K. Tsuboki;M. Yoshioka;T. Shinoda;Masaya Kato;S. Kanada;A. Kitoh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Tsuboki;M. Yoshioka;T. Shinoda;Masaya Kato;S. Kanada;A. Kitoh
热带气旋强度随全球变暖而增强的现象已被历史资料研究和理论所证实。这引起了人们对台风强度未来变化的极大关注。本研究旨在探讨在全球暖化的世纪后期，超级台风的强度会增加到何种程度。使用云解析模式进行了非常高分辨率的下尺度试验，没有对流参数化，用于从20 km网格全球模拟中获得的30个最强烈的台风。在小尺度试验中出现了12个超级台风，其中最强的一个达到了857百帕的中心气压和88米·秒-1的风速。超级台风的最大强度几乎不受实验设置产生的不确定性的影响。该研究表明，未来最强的超级台风可能达到85-90 m s−1的风速和860 hPa的最低中心气压。
Increases of tropical cyclone intensity with global warming have been demonstrated by historical data studies and theory. This raises great concern regarding future changes in typhoon intensity. The present study addressed the problem to what extent supertyphoons will become intense in the global warming climate of the late 21st century. Very high resolution downscale experiments using a cloud‐resolving model without convective parameterizations were performed for the 30 most intense typhoons obtained from the 20 km mesh global simulation of a warmer climate. Twelve supertyphoons occurred in the downscale experiments, and the most intense supertyphoon attained a central pressure of 857 hPa and a wind speed of 88 m s−1. The maximum intensity of the supertyphoon was little affected by uncertainties that arise from experimental settings. This study indicates that the most intense future supertyphoon could attain wind speeds of 85–90 m s−1 and minimum central pressures of 860 hPa.