Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method for technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties
Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method for technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.012
复制
发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Jingzheng Ren;M. Lützen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jingzheng Ren;M. Lützen
本文提出了一种在不确定和不完全信息条件下，应用多准则决策方法进行船舶减排技术选择的方法。可持续性评估采用了技术（成熟度）、经济（资本成本和运营成本）、环境（减少SOx、NOx、GHG和PM的效果）和社会政治方面（政府支持和社会可接受性）四个方面的九项标准。本研究旨在将模糊层次分析法（AHP）与VIKOR法相结合，建立船舶减排技术选择方法。模糊层次分析法用于确定评价标准的权重和相对性能的替代品相对于每个评价标准，和VIKOR被用来优先考虑的替代技术。将VIKOR法和传统的AHP法相结合，对所提出的方法进行了验证。利用该模型对低硫燃料、洗涤器和LNG三种替代技术进行了研究，结果表明，该方法能够在不确定性和信息不完全的情况下，帮助决策者选择最具可持续性的航运减排技术。
This paper describes a methodology for the application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) on the technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties and incomplete information. Nine criteria in four aspects, including technological (maturity), economic (capital cost and operation cost), environmental (effects of SOx, NOx, GHG, and PM reduction), and social–political aspects (government support and social acceptability), were used for the sustainability assessment. The study aims at developing the methodology for technology selection for emissions reduction from shipping by combining Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and VIKOR. Fuzzy AHP was used to determine the weights of the evaluation criteria and the relative performance of the alternatives with respect to each evaluation criterion, and VIKOR was used to prioritize the alternative technologies. The two methods of VIKOR and the traditional AHP were combined to validate the proposed methodology. Three alternative technologies of low sulphur fuel, scrubber and LNG were studied using the proposed model, and the results indicate that the proposed methodology is capable of assisting the decision-makers to select the most sustainable technology for emissions reduction from shipping under uncertainties and incomplete information.