The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists
The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1692848
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发表时间：
2010-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Guinnane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Guinnane
历史上的生育率转变是欧洲和北美大部分地区在19世纪和20世纪初从高生育率向低生育率转变的过程。这种转变是最近对长期经济增长的描述的核心。在过渡之前，妇女每人生育多达8个孩子，生育率对收入的弹性为正。今天，许多妇女根本没有孩子，生育率对收入的弹性为零，甚至是负的。本文讨论了关于历史生育率转变的大量文献，重点讨论了我们对这一过程的了解和不了解。我强调了对人口统计文献可能存在的一些误解，并讨论了未来工作的议程。
The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.