A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630
A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630
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DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2018.1457794
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发表时间：
2019-01-02
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Bonetti, Marco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alfani, Guido;Bonetti, Marco
本文首次对鼠疫引起的大规模死亡危机进行了生存分析。对于至事件发生时间分析，我们使用了考克斯比例风险回归模型。我们的案例研究是1630年瘟疫期间的诺南托拉镇，这可能是自黑死病以来影响意大利最严重的一次。个人死亡风险不取决于性别，随年龄增长而增加（在40-60岁达到峰值，然后下降），不受社会经济地位的影响，与家庭规模呈正相关。我们讨论这些发现的历史人口和古人口文学中世纪和近代早期的瘟疫。我们的研究结果与有争议的观点一致，即古代瘟疫能够直接在人与人之间传播。我们的方法可以复制在欧洲瘟疫的其他研究中，以细微差别和整合最近的古生物学和古人口学研究鼠疫的结果。
This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40-60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical-demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.