Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana
Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana
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考虑环境影响的 COVID-19 的全球稳定性和成本效益分析：使用加纳的数据
DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110103
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Gyasi, Esther Opoku
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K.;Owusu, Mark A.;Gyasi, Esther Opoku
COVID-19可能威胁世界各地人民的生命和生计。该疾病目前是加纳和世界其他地区的一个主要健康问题。虽然已经建立了人与人之间的传播动力学，但对病毒在环境中的动力学以及人类通过将病毒释放到环境中所发挥的作用进行的研究并不多。因此，运用数学分析和最优控制理论对人-环境-人进行研究是十分必要的。本研究的COVID-19动态分为以下部分：易感（S）、暴露（E）、无症状（A）、症状（I）、感染（R）和环境/表面中的病毒（V）。计算无控制的基本再现数R-0。应用李雅普诺夫函数分析了模型的全局稳定性。我们在2020年3月12日至2020年5月7日的时间窗口内，借助Python编程语言，使用最小二乘法将模型拟合到加纳的真实的数据。无对照的平均基本繁殖数R-0（a）约为2.68。基于灵敏度分析，提出了一种最优控制方法.对模型进行了数值模拟，验证了分析结果.可接受的控制集，如：有效的测试和检疫时，寄宿开放，口罩和面罩的使用，通过媒体教育，清洁表面与家庭为基础的洗涤剂，练习适当的咳嗽礼仪和熏蒸商业区;健康中心在MATLAB中进行模拟。我们采用了前后向扫描的Runge-Kutta格式，在正文中给出了有趣的结果，例如，成本效益分析表明，策略4（无症状和有症状个体采取的安全措施，如通过保持距离练习适当的咳嗽礼仪，咳嗽和打喷嚏时用一次性纸巾或衣服盖住，咳嗽或打喷嚏后洗手）是正在考虑的所有六种控制干预策略中最具成本效益的策略。(c)2020爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
COVID-19 potentially threatens the lives and livelihood of people all over the world. The disease is presently a major health concern in Ghana and the rest of the world. Although, human to human transmission dynamics has been established, not much research is done on the dynamics of the virus in the environment and the role human play by releasing the virus into the environment. Therefore, investigating the human-environment-human by use of mathematical analysis and optimal control theory is relatively necessary. The dynamics of COVID-19 for this study is segregated into compartments as: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Asymptomatic (A), Symptomatic (I), Recovered (R) and the Virus in the environment/surfaces (V). The basic reproduction number R-0 without controls is computed. The application of Lyapunov's function is used to analyse the global stability of the proposed model. We fit the model to real data from Ghana in the time window 12th March 2020 to 7th May 2020, with the aid of python programming language using the least-squares method. The average basic reproduction number without controls, R-0(a), is approximately 2.68. An optimal control is formulated based on the sensitivity analysis. Numerical simulation of the model is also done to verify the analytic results. The admissible control set such as: effective testing and quarantine when boarders are opened, the usage of masks and face shields through media education, cleaning of surfaces with home-based detergents, practising proper cough etiquette and fumigating commercial areas; health centers is simulated in MATLAB. We used forward-backward sweep Runge-Kutta scheme which gave interesting results in the main text, for example, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that, Strategy 4 (safety measures adopted by the asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals such as practicing proper coughing etiquette by maintaining a distance, covering coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing and washing of hands after coughing or sneezing) is the most costeffective strategy among all the six control intervention strategies under consideration. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.