Heat waves in Berlin and Potsdam, Germany - Long-term trends and comparison of heat wave definitions from 1893 to 2017
Heat waves in Berlin and Potsdam, Germany - Long-term trends and comparison of heat wave definitions from 1893 to 2017
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.5962
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发表时间：
2019-03-30
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Scherer, Dieter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fenner, Daniel;Holtmann, Achim;Scherer, Dieter
热浪（HWs）是一种以炎热天气为特征的自然灾害。然而，由于缺乏一个普遍的定义，各种各样的定义被应用。本研究将10种不同的基于气温(T)的高温定义应用于德国柏林市区，调查和比较了1893年至2017年高温的发生、持续时间及其长期趋势。我们研究了长期趋势如何取决于不同的hw定义，以及柏林市中心和外围地区的长期平均值和趋势是否不同。一般来说，结果显示，大多数定义的HW发生率和持续时间显著增加，尽管它们之间存在很大差异。这些定义之间的时间一致性很低，所有定义都将125年中的15次事件确定为HWs。如果应用基于每日最小值或平均T的定义，柏林市中心地区比周边地区受到更频繁和更长时间的hw。结果还表明，对于具有“极值”检测标准（例如，在持续时间或阈值方面）的HW定义，HW特征的趋势估计对所应用的方法高度敏感。我们的结论是，根据所调查的问题，不同的HW定义可能是最佳的，因此，开发“通用”定义的尝试需要考虑到这一点。
Heat waves (HWs) are natural hazards characterised by episodes of hot weather. However, in the absence of a universal definition a wide variety of definitions is applied. In this study, ten different air temperature (T) based HW definitions are applied to the urban region of Berlin, Germany, to investigate and compare the occurrence and duration of HWs, and their long-term trends from 1893 to 2017. We studied how long-term trends depend on different definition of HWs, as well as if long-term mean values and trends differ between inner-city and peripheral locations of Berlin. Generally, results show significant increases in HW occurrence and duration for most definitions, although large differences exist between them. Temporal agreement between the definitions is low, 15 episodes in 125 years are identified by all definitions as HWs. Inner-city regions of Berlin are subject to more frequent and longer HWs than peripheral regions, if definitions based on daily minimum or mean T are applied. Results also show that trend estimations of HW characteristics for HW definitions with "extreme" values for their detection criteria (e.g., in terms of duration or threshold) are highly sensitive to the applied method. We conclude that depending on the question under investigation, different HW definitions might be optimal and hence attempts for the development of "universal" definitions need to take this into account.