Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 °C global warming target
Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 °C global warming target
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DOI：
10.1016/j.accre.2017.12.002
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发表时间：
2017-12
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Tao Wang;Jiapeng Miao;Jianqi Sun;Yuanhai Fu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tao Wang;Jiapeng Miao;Jianqi Sun;Yuanhai Fu
在这项研究中，东亚夏季气候变化的1.5 °C的全球变暖（1.5 GW）的目标下，30个模拟来自耦合模式相互比较计划第5阶段（CMIP 5）的15个模式进行了检查。与当前夏季气候（1975-2005年）相比，在1.5 GW期间（2021-2051年平均期间），东亚大陆的地表气温和降水都显著增加。在中国东北地区，这一现象尤为明显，区域平均降水量增加超过7.2%，高于整个东亚大陆（约4.2%）。由于40°N以北降水增强的加强，东亚大陆夏季降水的主导经验正交函数模态由类三极模态转变为偶极模态。由于东亚大陆的地表增温比周围海洋的增温更强，1.5GW期间的海陆热力对比增强。结果表明，对流层低层季风环流明显加强，东亚大陆夏季降水增多。此外，东亚夏季风环流和相关降水的较大的年际变化也建议为1.5千兆瓦期间。
In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 °C global warming (1.5 GW) target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined. Compared with the current summer climate (1975–2005), both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period (average period 2021–2051). In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent (approximately 4.2%). Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land–sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.