The End of the Cold War, Attitude Change, and the Politics of Defense Spending
The End of the Cold War, Attitude Change, and the Politics of Defense Spending
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冷战的结束、态度转变和国防开支的政治
DOI：
10.2307/420451
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发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Murray
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Russett;Thomas Hartley;S. Murray
在整个冷战期间，美国的国家安全政策，以及支持它的公众态度，似乎都植根于与苏联的伟大意识形态和实力竞争。这一政策的一个基本组成部分，即美国军费开支的起起落落，在很大程度上可以通过苏联军费开支水平的变化和民意调查所显示的公众对美国军费开支增加或减少的偏好来预测。此外，公众对军费开支适当水平的看法似乎牢牢植根于一套更大的外交政策信念。对苏联的态度，对国际上使用武力的正当理由的态度，以及对与其他国家合作的态度，都是一个稳定而明确的信念体系的组成部分。反过来，外交政策的态度往往可以从一系列合理连贯的国内政策态度中预测出来。冷战的结束给政策和态度都带来了显著的变化。这场竞争的主要支撑点——苏联本身——已经不复存在，俄罗斯不再构成同样水平或种类的军事威胁。美国军费开支、在海外使用军事力量和国际合作的理由也同样发生了变化。但在某些方面，它们并没有发生太大的变化。这些历史性事件为我们提供了一个绝佳的机会来研究美国人外交政策信念的结构和态度变化的动态。它们还提供了一个机会来推测态度的变化和稳定可能如何影响国家安全政策。
Throughout the Cold War, United States national security policy, and the public attitudes that supported it, seemed anchored in the great ideology and power rivalry with the Soviet Union. A basic component of that policy, the ups and downs of American military spending, was largely predictable by changes in the level of Soviet military spending and by public preferences, as expressed in opinion surveys, for increases or decreases in American military spending. Public beliefs about the appropriate level of military spending, moreover, appeared firmly rooted in a larger set of foreign policy beliefs. Attitudes toward the Soviet Union, toward the circumstances justifying the use of military force internationally, and toward cooperating with other countries were all part of a stable and well-defined system of beliefs. In turn, foreign policy attitudes frequently were predictable from a reasonably coherent set of attitudes toward domestic policy. The end of the Cold War brought remarkable changes in both policy and attitudes. The major anchoring point for the rivalry—the Soviet Union itself—has ceased to exist, and Russia no longer poses the same level or kind of military threat. Rationales for U.S. military spending, for the use of military force abroad, and for international cooperation have likewise changed. But in some respects they have not changed so greatly. These historic events present us with an extraordinary opportunity to study the structure of Americans' foreign policy beliefs and the dynamics of attitude change. They also provide a chance to speculate about how changed and stable attitudes may affect national security policy.