Comparing Theoretical Age Patterns of Mortality Beyond the Age of 80
Comparing Theoretical Age Patterns of Mortality Beyond the Age of 80
复制标题
比较 80 岁以上的理论死亡率模式
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Tabeau
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Boleslawski;E. Tabeau
来自法国、意大利、荷兰和挪威这四个欧洲低死亡率国家以及最近 40 多年（1950-1994 年）的死亡率数据已被用来调查代表最高年龄死亡率年龄模式的 11 个函数的有用性。事实证明，具有两个参数的函数不足以拟合 80-110 岁年龄区间的死亡率。较少的简约函数，即具有三个或更多参数，性能更好。当可靠数据存在到很老的年龄时，即理想情况下可达 110 岁，但至少可达 90 岁，建议 Coale-Kisker 方法为最佳选择。如果最高年龄的数据不可靠，建议使用多项式外推年龄模式，前提是 85 岁以下所有年龄的数据质量都令人满意。
Data on mortality from four European low-mortality countries, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Norway, and more than 40 recent years (1950–1994) have been used to investigate the usefulness of 11 functions representing the age pattern of mortality at the oldest ages. Functions with two parameters proved to be inadequate to fit mortality rates in the age interval 80–110 years. Less parsimonious functions, i.e. with three and more parameters, perform better. When reliable data exist up to a very old age, i.e. ideally up to 110 but at least up to 90 years, the Coale-Kisker method is suggested as the best choice. If the data for the oldest ages are not reliable, extrapolation of the age pattern is recommended by using a polynomial, provided that the quality of data is satisfactory for all ages up to 85 years.