The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks
The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0041135
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发表时间：
2012-07-24
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Luboobi, Livingstone S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nannyonga, Betty;Sumpter, David J. T.;Luboobi, Livingstone S.
迅速蔓延的传染病对公共卫生构成严重威胁。使用与数据相适应的数学模型，可以更好地了解这些疾病爆发的动态和因素。在这里，我们调查了2007年至2009年期间在乌干达北方的基特古姆地区戊型肝炎暴发的动态。首先，我们使用数据来确定爆发的R-0约为2.25。其次，我们使用一个模型来估计，消除流行病所需的厕所和钻孔覆盖率的临界水平分别为至少16%和17%。最后，进一步探讨戊型肝炎与疟疾共感染因素对戊型肝炎R 0值的影响。总之，这些结果使我们更好地了解戊型肝炎爆发的动态和可能原因。
Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R-0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.