How Government Statistics Adjust for Potential Biases from Quality Change and New Goods in an Age of Digital Technologies: A View from the Trenches
How Government Statistics Adjust for Potential Biases from Quality Change and New Goods in an Age of Digital Technologies: A View from the Trenches
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DOI：
10.1257/jep.31.2.187
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Friedman, David M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Groshen, Erica L.;Moyer, Brian C.;Friedman, David M.
一个关键的经济指标是真实的产出。要做到这一点，我们需要准确衡量名义GDP（由经济分析局完成）和关键价格指数（主要由劳工统计局完成）。我们所有人在劳工统计局和劳工统计局工作时都从事过这些测量工作。在本文中，我们将探讨一些与衡量动态经济相关的棘手的统计和概念问题。人们经常表示的一个担忧是，国民经济账户遗漏了数字经济增长带来的某些商品和服务的价值。我们同意，与质量变化和新产品有关的计量问题可能导致真实的产出和生产率的增长被低估。然而，这些衡量问题远非新的，根据最近变化的幅度和时间，我们得出结论，它们不太可能解释近年来增长放缓的模式。首先，我们讨论劳动统计局目前如何调整价格指数，以减少质量变化和新产品的引入带来的偏差，沿着提出了一些替代方法。然后，我们提出了对真实的GDP增长的剩余偏差程度的估计，这些偏差源于消费和投资增长的潜在偏差。此外，我们还探讨了在衡量名义GDP时可能产生的潜在偏差，包括涉及数字经济的问题。最后，我们回顾正在进行的工作，在BLS和ESTA，以减少潜在的偏见，并进一步改善测量。
A key economic indicator is real output. To get this right, we need to measure accurately both the value of nominal GDP (done by Bureau of Economic Analaysis) and key price indexes (done mostly by Bureau of Labor Statisticcs). All of us have worked on these measurements while at the BLS and the BEA. In this article, we explore some of the thorny statistical and conceptual issues related to measuring a dynamic economy. An often-stated concern is that the national economic accounts miss some of the value of some goods and services arising from the growing digital economy. We agree that measurement problems related to quality changes and new goods have likely caused growth of real output and productivity to be understated. Nevertheless, these measurement issues are far from new, and, based on the magnitude and timing of recent changes, we conclude that it is unlikely that they can account for the pattern of slower growth in recent years. First we discuss how the Bureau of Labor Statistics currently adjusts price indexes to reduce the bias from quality changes and the introduction of new goods, along with some alternative methods that have been proposed. We then present estimates of the extent of remaining bias in real GDP growth that stem from potential biases in growth of consumption and investment. And we take a look at potential biases that could result from challenges in measuring nominal GDP, including those involving the digital economy. Finally, we review ongoing work at BLS and BEA to reduce potential biases and further improve measurement.