A new approach to understand metro operation safety by exploring metro operation hazard network (MOHN)
A new approach to understand metro operation safety by exploring metro operation hazard network (MOHN)
复制标题
通过探索地铁运营危险网络（MOHN）了解地铁运营安全的新方法
DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2016.10.010
复制
发表时间：
2017-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Liu, Ping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Qiming;Song, Liangliang;Liu, Ping
大量的地铁事故暴露了地铁系统的脆弱性。随着城市地铁系统的快速建设和扩张，深入探讨地铁运行安全的本质是必要的。地铁事故可以看作是由于系统部件的异常相互作用而产生的紧急性质。这些相互作用可能导致在一次事故中同时出现几种相互关联的危害的现象。了解这些危险之间的相互关系是研究地铁运营安全的必要条件。在此基础上，从134起事故和专家访谈中确定了28个危险因素和48个危险因素之间的相互关系，为建立地铁运营危险网络（MOHN）奠定了基础。利用复杂网络理论，通过7个参数进一步揭示MOHN的结构特性。结果表明，MOHN是一个无标度网络，其累积度分布服从幂律分布。MOHN的无标度特性表明了它对随机攻击的鲁棒性和对故意攻击的脆弱性。小众目标控制高度风险和中间中心性可以显著降低地铁运营风险。此外，MOHN还具有小世界性质，具有较高的聚类系数和较小的最短路径长度。这表明，在MOHN中，风险传播非常迅速。对于MOHN的快速传播，应引起足够的重视。揭示MOHN的内在特性，有助于在地铁事故发生前制定预警策略，提高地铁运行的系统安全性。(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Numerous metro accidents expose the vulnerability of metro system. As cities are rapidly building and expanding metro systems, it is essential to thoroughly explore the nature of metro operation safety. Metro accidents can be regarded as an emergent property that arises from the unusual interactions of system components. These interactions could give rise to the phenomenon that several interrelated hazards simultaneously emerge in one single accident. Understanding these interrelations among hazards is indispensable to study metro operation safety. From this standpoint, 28 hazards and 48 interrelations among hazards were identified from 134 accidents and expert interviews, which were the foundation of establishing metro operation hazard network (MOHN). Whereby complex network theory, seven parameters were applied to further reveal the structural properties of MOHN. The results indicate that the MOHN is a scale-free network for the cumulative degree distribution obeys power-law distribution. The scale-free property of MOHN is indicative of its robustness to random attacks and its vulnerability to deliberate attacks. Nichetargeting controlling hazards of high degrees and betweenness centrality can significantly decrease the metro operation risks. Moreover, MOHN also possesses the small-world property for having a relatively high clustering coefficient and small shortest path length. This indicates that risks would be transmitted very quickly in MOHN. Secondary and derivative hazards should receive enough attention for the rapid propagation of MOHN. Revealing the inherent properties of MOHN assist in making beforehand strategies prior to metro accident and contributes to elevate system safety of metro operation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.