Changes in testing rates could mask the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate
Changes in testing rates could mask the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) growth rate
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.021
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Omori, Ryosuke;Mizumoto, Kenji;Chowell, Gerardo
自 2019 年 12 月在中国出现新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）以来，它已在世界各地迅速传播，导致了近代历史上最重大的大流行事件之一。得出对 COVID-19 疫情增长率的可靠估计对于指导干预策略的时机和强度非常重要。事实上，许多研究都利用疫情爆发早期报告病例的时间序列来量化疫情增长率，以估计基本再生数 R-0。使用每日的 COVID-19 发病率时间序列，我们说明了由于检测率的变化，报告病例的流行病曲线可能并不总是反映真实的流行病增长率，这可能受到流行病早期阶段有限的诊断检测能力的影响。 (C) 2020 作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Since the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 in China, it has rapidly spread around the world, leading to one of the most significant pandemic events of recent history. Deriving reliable estimates of the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate is quite important to guide the timing and intensity of intervention strategies. Indeed, many studies have quantified the epidemic growth rate using time-series of reported cases during the early phase of the outbreak to estimate the basic reproduction number, R-0. Using daily time series of COVID-19 incidence, we illustrate how epidemic curves of reported cases may not always reflect the true epidemic growth rate due to changes in testing rates, which could be influenced by limited diagnostic testing capacity during the early epidemic phase. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.