Estimating effects of Uber ride-sharing service on road traffic-related deaths in South Africa: a quasi-experimental study
Estimating effects of Uber ride-sharing service on road traffic-related deaths in South Africa: a quasi-experimental study
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2018-211006
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Daku, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Jonathan Yinhao;Majid, Farhan;Daku, Mark
背景道路交通死亡是低收入和中等收入国家(LMIC)改善人口健康的重要障碍。在南非，道路交通伤害死亡率为每10万人口27人，是全球平均水平的两倍，其中60%以上与酒精有关。美国最近的研究表明，Uber拼车服务可能会减少与酒精相关的RTM，但美国的RTM负担相对较低，而且运输行为与LMIC不同。方法使用2010-2014年南非所有死亡病例的认证数据(n=2 498 216)，我们调查了接受Uber服务的省份(从2013年开始)与没有使用差异方法的省份之间每周道路交通相关死亡人数的相对变化。结果在Uber引入Uber后，有Uber的省份每周与没有Uber的省份相比，与没有Uber的省份相比，每周与道路交通相关的死亡人数更低。在优步时间最长的省份(豪登省)和年轻成年男性(17-39岁)中，影响范围更大。然而，绝对影响非常小(每年2人死亡)，而且可能与季节变化相一致。结论总的来说，研究结果并不支持与南非优步相关的省级道路交通相关死亡人数的增加或大幅下降。需要在南非和其他LMIC进行更多的本地化调查。
Background Road traffic deaths are a substantial barrier to population health improvement in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In South Africa, the road-traffic injury mortality (RTM) rate of 27 per 100 000 population is twice the global average, over 60% of which are alcohol-related. Recent US studies suggest the Uber ride-sharing service may reduce alcohol-related RTM, however RTM burden in the USA is relatively low and transport behaviours differ from LMICs.Methods Using certification data from all deaths occurring in South Africa in the years 2010-2014 (n= 2 498 216), we investigated the relative change in weekly road traffic-related death counts between provinces which received Uber services (beginning in 2013) against those that did not using a difference-in-differences approach.Results Weekly road traffic-related deaths in provinces with Uber were lower following Uber introduction than in comparison provinces without Uber. The effect size was larger in the province which had Uber the longest (Gauteng) and among young adult males (aged 17-39 years). However, the absolute effects were very small (< 2 deaths per year) and may coincide with seasonal variation.Conclusions Overall, findings did not support either an increase or large decrease in province-level road traffic-related deaths associated with Uber introduction to South Africa. More localised investigations in South Africa and other LMICs are needed.