Why are a Third of People Indian and Chinese? Trade, Industrialization and Demographic Transition
Why are a Third of People Indian and Chinese? Trade, Industrialization and Demographic Transition
复制标题
为什么三分之一的人是印度人和中国人？
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Mountford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oded Galor;A. Mountford
这项研究认为，国际贸易在各国人口转变的时间方面发挥了重要作用，因此是世界人口分布的主要决定因素，也是各国人口增长和收入水平持续存在差异的主要原因。在工业经济体中，国际贸易加强了技术密集型产品生产的专业化，并刺激了技术进步。对熟练劳动力需求的增加导致对人口素质的投资，加速了人口结构的转变，刺激了技术进步，并进一步加强了这些工业经济体在生产熟练密集型产品方面的比较优势。相比之下，在非工业化经济体，国际贸易带来的非技术密集型产品生产的专业化减少了对技术劳动力的需求，对投资于人口素质的激励有限。因此，人口结构的转变被推迟，进一步增加了这些经济体非熟练劳动力的充裕程度，并加剧了它们在生产熟练密集型产品方面的相对劣势。因此，国际贸易扩大了工业经济体和非工业经济体在技术水平和技能丰富程度方面的差距，加强了最初的比较优势格局，并在各国人均收入方面产生了持续的差异。
This research argues that international trade has played a significant role in the timing of demographic transitions across countries and has thereby been a major determinant of the distribution of world population and a prime cause of sustained differences in population growth and income levels across countries. In industrial economies international trade enhanced the specialization in the production of skilled-intensive goods and stimulated technological progress. The rise in the demand for skilled labour induced an investment in the quality of the population, expediting the demographic transition, stimulating technological progress and further enhancing the comparative advantage of these industrial economies in the production of skilled intensive goods. In non-industrial economies, in contrast, the specialization in the production of unskilled-intensive goods that was brought about by international trade reduced the demand for skilled labour and provided limited incentives to invest in population quality. The demographic transition was therefore delayed, increasing further the abundance of unskilled labour in these economies and enhancing their comparative disadvantage in the production of skilled intensive goods. International trade has therefore widened the gap between the technological level as well as the skill abundance of industrial and non-industrial economies, enhancing the initial patterns of comparative advantage and generating sustained differences in income per capita across countries.