Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change.
Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2016.07.033
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发表时间：
2016-11
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Ṣ. Özkan;A. Vitali;N. Lacetera;B. Amon;A. Bannink;D. Bartley;I. Blanco-Penedo;Yvette de Haas;I. Dufrasne;J. Elliott;V. Eory;N. J. Fox;P. Garnsworthy;N. Gengler;H. Hammami;I. Kyriazakis;D. Leclère;F. Lessire;M. MacLeod;T. Robinson;Alejandro Ruete;D. Sandars;S. Shrestha;A. Stott;S. Twardy;Marie-Laure Vanrobays;B. V. Ahmadi;I. Weindl;N. Wheelhouse;A. Williams;H. Williams;A. Wilson;S. Østergaard;R. Kipling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ṣ. Özkan;A. Vitali;N. Lacetera;B. Amon;A. Bannink;D. Bartley;I. Blanco-Penedo;Yvette de Haas;I. Dufrasne;J. Elliott;V. Eory;N. J. Fox;P. Garnsworthy;N. Gengler;H. Hammami;I. Kyriazakis;D. Leclère;F. Lessire;M. MacLeod;T. Robinson;Alejandro Ruete;D. Sandars;S. Shrestha;A. Stott;S. Twardy;Marie-Laure Vanrobays;B. V. Ahmadi;I. Weindl;N. Wheelhouse;A. Williams;H. Williams;A. Wilson;S. Østergaard;R. Kipling
气候变化有可能损害牲畜健康，对动物福利、生产力、温室气体排放以及人类生计和健康造成后果。建模在评估气候变化对畜牧业系统的影响和潜在适应战略的效力方面发挥着重要作用，以支持决策，提高生产效率、复原力和可持续性。然而，气候变化下牲畜健康和病原体建模的一系列连贯的挑战和研究优先事项以前并不存在。为了确定这些挑战和优先事项，来自欧洲各地的研究人员参与了一项横向扫描研究，包括研讨会和基于问卷的练习以及重点文献综述。确定了18项关键挑战，并根据具体主题和能力建设要求将其分为六类。在一系列挑战中，确定了将模型类型与不同应用（例如病原体种类、区域、重点范围和可应用的目的）相联系的清单的必要性，以便确定气候变化对动物健康影响方面的能力差距。一些挑战强调了跨学科合作和学习的必要性，例如，更好地理解和模拟气候变化背景下病原体、病媒、野生动物宿主和牲畜之间复杂的生态相互作用。社会经济学科和生物物理学科之间的合作被认为对于更好地与利益攸关方接触和改进牲畜健康状况差的成本和效益的建模非常重要。需要对经验关系进行更全面的验证，统一术语和计量方法，并为研究不足的国家、系统和卫生问题进行能力建设，这表明各国采取联合办法的重要性。所确定的挑战和优先事项可有助于重点发展这一重要领域的建模能力和今后的研究结构。需要有资金充足的网络，能够管理共享资源的长期发展，以便建立一个有凝聚力的建模社区，有能力应对气候变化的复杂挑战。
Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.