SHELTER-IN-PLACE ORDERS AND PUBLIC HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIADURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
SHELTER-IN-PLACE ORDERS AND PUBLIC HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIADURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/pam.22267
复制
发表时间：
2020-12-11
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Dave, Dhaval
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Friedson, Andrew I.;McNichols, Drew;Dave, Dhaval
就地避难令 (SIPO) 是旨在遏制 COVID-19 传播的限制性最强的非药物干预措施之一。 2020 年 3 月 19 日，加州州长 Gavin Newsom 发布了美国第一个全州范围的 SIPO。该命令关闭了非必要的企业，并要求居民就地避难，以进行除必要活动之外的所有活动，例如杂货店购物、从药房取处方或照顾亲戚。这项研究是经济学文献中第一个评估全州 SIPO 对公共卫生影响的研究。利用每日州级冠状病毒数据和综合控制研究设计，我们发现，截至 4 月 20 日（即该命令发布一个月后），加州全州 SIPO 将每 10 万人中的 COVID-19 病例减少了 160.9 例至 194.7 例。我们进一步发现，加州 SIPO 在此期间减少了多达 1,566 例 COVID-19 死亡人数。粗略计算表明，在治疗后的这段时间内，每挽救一个生命，就会导致约 649 至 703 人失业，并且每个病例可避免约 14 至 16 人失业。 (C) 2020 年公共政策分析与管理协会
A shelter-in-place order (SIPO) is one of the most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions designed to curb the spread of COVID-19. On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued the first statewide SIPO in the United States. The order closed non-essential businesses and required residents to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This study is the first in the economics literature to estimate the effect of a statewide SIPO on public health. Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 160.9 to 194.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,566 fewer COVID-19 deaths during this period. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there were about 649 to 703 job losses per life saved, and about 14 to16 job losses per case averted during this post-treatment period. (C) 2020 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management