Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors
Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2012.07.059
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发表时间：
2012-10
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Amy Pielow;R. Sioshansi;M. C. Roberts
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amy Pielow;R. Sioshansi;M. C. Roberts
本文指定和估计在美国的短期和长期电力需求的国家级模型。短期模型根据天气和日历输入预测每小时负荷。长期模型估计年际需求，并包括人口，价格和国家生产总值作为预测因子。这些模型相结合，以纳入短期和长期趋势的电力消耗时，产生预测的昼夜模式到未来。最后，作者研究了需求的短期价格弹性的影响。短期模型被证明是在95%的准确度的实际水平在样本外的测试。
This paper specifies and estimates state-level models of short- and long-term electricity demand in the United States. The short-term model predicts hourly load based on weather and calendar inputs. The long-term model estimates interannual demand, and includes population, prices, and gross state product as predictors. These models are combined to incorporate the short- and long-term trends in electricity consumption when generating forecasts of diurnal patterns into the future. Finally, the authors investigate the effects of short-run price elasticities of demand. The short-term model is shown to be within 95% accuracy of actual levels in out-of-sample tests.