Relating recent infection prevalence to incidence with a sub-population of assay non-progressors
Relating recent infection prevalence to incidence with a sub-population of assay non-progressors
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DOI：
10.1007/s00285-009-0282-7
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发表时间：
2010-05-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Welte, Alex
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McWalter, Thomas Andrew;Welte, Alex
我们提出了一个新的分析疾病的发病率和流行的实验定义的状态“最近感染”之间的关系。这导致需要校准的生物学参数（反映在最近感染测试中的疾病进展特性）与在横断面调查中估计的流行病学状态变量之间的明确区分。该框架考虑了检测和宿主/病原体化学的细节在所有时间都将一部分（已知）种群留在最近类别中的可能性。这系统地解决了一个问题，这是一些争议的来源，适当使用的BED测定定义最近的HIV感染。然而，该分析适用于构成近期感染检测基础的任何检测。从统计考虑和简化的一般表达式所产生的各种误差的相对贡献的分析表明，统计误差占主导地位的方法偏差，为现实的流行病学和生物情景。
We present a new analysis of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of 'recent infection'. This leads to a clean separation between biological parameters (properties of disease progression as reflected in a test for recent infection), which need to be calibrated, and epidemiological state variables, which are estimated in a cross-sectional survey. The framework takes into account the possibility that details of the assay and host/pathogen chemistry leave a (knowable) fraction of the population in the recent category for all times. This systematically addresses an issue which is the source of some controversy about the appropriate use of the BED assay for defining recent HIV infection. The analysis is, however, applicable to any assay that forms the basis of a test for recent infection. Analysis of relative contributions of error arising variously from statistical considerations and simplifications of general expressions indicate that statistical error dominates heavily over methodological bias for realistic epidemiological and biological scenarios.