Obesity 2 Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK
Obesity 2 Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(11)60814-3
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发表时间：
2011-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Brown, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Y. Claire;McPherson, Klim;Brown, Martin
肥胖患病率的上升是一个全球性的健康问题，因为人口中体重的过度增加预示着几种疾病的负担增加，最明显的是心血管疾病、糖尿病和癌症。在这份报告中，我们使用了一个模拟模型来预测未来20年美国和英国这两个老龄化人口中肥胖症持续上升可能对健康和经济造成的后果。这些趋势预计，到2030年，美国将增加6500万肥胖成年人，英国将增加1100万肥胖成年人，因此，美国和英国将增加600万至850万糖尿病病例，570万至730万心脏病和中风病例，492000至669000例癌症病例，美国和英国将增加2600万至5500万质量调整生命年。据估计，到2030年，与治疗这些可预防疾病相关的综合医疗费用在美国每年将增加48- 660亿美元，在英国每年将增加19 -2亿英镑。因此，促进健康体重的有效政策也具有经济效益。
Rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers. In this report, we used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in two ageing populations the USA and the UK. These trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8.5 million cases of diabetes, 5.7-7.3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492000-669000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for USA and UK combined. The combined medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year in the USA and by 1.9-2 pound billion/year in the UK by 2030. Hence, effective policies to promote healthier weight also have economic benefits.