Quantifying the extinction vortex
Quantifying the extinction vortex
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00845.x
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Holmes, EE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fagan, WF;Holmes, EE
我们开发了一个包含10个野生脊椎动物种群的数据库，这些种群在至少12年的时间里受到监测。我们定量地描述了这些监测良好的种群的最终下降，并测试了关于灭绝过程的关键理论预测，获得了两个主要结果。首先，我们发现了证据的对数尺度的时间灭绝的人口规模的函数为10个人口。第二，两条证据表明，这些灭绝的人口集体表现出类似于理论上提出的灭绝漩涡中发生的动态。具体来说，回顾性分析表明，在灭绝的十年内，n个个体的种群规模在某种程度上比相同的种群规模更早地对持久性没有价值。同样，随着灭绝时间的缩短，每年的下降率和每年的变化率都在增加。总之，这些结果为灭绝动力学提供了关键的经验见解，这是一个受到广泛理论关注的重要课题。
We developed a database of 10 wild vertebrate populations whose declines to extinction were monitored over at least 12 years. We quantitatively characterized the final declines of these well-monitored populations and tested key theoretical predictions about the process of extinction, obtaining two primary results. First, we found evidence of logarithmic scaling of time-to-extinction as a function of population size for each of the 10 populations. Second, two lines of evidence suggested that these extinction-bound populations collectively exhibited dynamics akin to those theoretically proposed to occur in extinction vortices. Specifically, retrospective analyses suggested that a population size of n individuals within a decade of extinction was somehow less valuable to persistence than the same population size was earlier. Likewise, both year-to-year rates of decline and year-to-year variability increased as the time-to-extinction decreased. Together, these results provide key empirical insights into extinction dynamics, an important topic that has received extensive theoretical attention.