Estimating geomagnetically induced currents at sub-auroral and low latitudes to assess their effects on power systems
Estimating geomagnetically induced currents at sub-auroral and low latitudes to assess their effects on power systems
复制标题
估算亚极光和低纬度地区的地磁感应电流，以评估其对电力系统的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Beloff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Falayi;N. Beloff
在大磁暴期间，地磁感应电流会对地面导电技术系统产生不利影响。地磁场水平分量的时间导数（dH/dt）大于30 nT/min，感应电流在电网中引起不良后果。利用1994-2007年低纬度和亚极光纬度水平地磁场的时间导数、地电场的东向和北向分量、极光电射流和扰动风暴次数，进行了多元回归分析，以预测地磁扰动水平。采用统计检验方法对地磁扰动进行了均方根误差（RMSE）和平均偏差误差（MBE）检验。不同的变量被用于开发不同类型的模型。相关系数和决定系数均较高，表明结果良好。方程产生最好的相关性在亚极光和低纬度，最好的相关性得到了较低的RMSE和MBE值。
During large magnetic storm the geomagnetically induced current has a negative impact on ground conducting technology systems. The time derivative of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field (dH/dt) is greater than 30nT/min for induced currents causing undesirable consequence in power grids. Multiple regression analyses were developed to predict the level of geomagnetic disturbance using time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic field, east and north components of the geoelectric field, auroral electrojet and disturbance storm times from 1994-2007 at low and subauroral latitudes. The statistical test RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MBE (Mean Bias Error) were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the geomagnetic disturbance. Different variables have been used to develop different types of models. Values of the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination were high, which indicates that the results are good. The equations produced the best correlations at subauroral and low latitudes, and the best correlation was obtained with low values of RMSE and MBE.