Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis
Evolution of the world crude oil market integration: A graph theory analysis
复制标题
世界原油市场一体化的演变：图论分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2014.12.003
复制
发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Fan, Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ji, Qiang;Fan, Ying
本文运用图论研究了世界原油市场的演变以及主要产油国和消费国的定价权。构造了世界原油市场的最小生成树，并给出了一些实证结果。验证了世界原油市场的一体化。此外，世界原油市场具有地域和组织结构的特点。相邻国家或地区的原油市场趋于联动，OPEC一体化程度较高。我们还发现，南美和北美地区以及非洲地区的联系相对稳定。美国、安哥拉和沙特阿拉伯的原油市场处于核心位置，具有较高的“中间中心性”和较低的“远度”，而东亚和东南亚国家的市场处于边缘位置。最后，世界原油市场的全球化程度正变得更加根深蒂固，这一点得到了正常化树长不断减少的验证；因此，由于未来世界政治的不确定性，其系统性风险可能会增加。(C) 2014 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
This paper investigates the evolution of the world crude oil market and the pricing power for major oil-producing and oil-consuming countries using graph theory. A minimal spanning tree for the world crude oil market is constructed and some empirical results are given. The integration of the world crude oil market is verified. Furthermore, the world crude oil market is characterised as a geographical and organisational structure. The crude oil markets of adjacent countries or regions tend to link together, while OPEC is well-integrated. We also found that the links in the South and North American region and the African region are relatively stable. The crude oil markets in the U.S., Angola and Saudi Arabia take up the core, with a higher 'betweenness centrality' and lower 'farness', whereas the markets in the East and Southeast Asian countries are on the fringe. Finally, the degree of globalisation for the world crude oil market is becoming further entrenched, verified by a decreasing normalised tree length; hence, its systemic risk may increase due to the future uncertainty of world politics. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.