Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery.
Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms4471
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发表时间：
2014-04-03
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Mather, T. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Biggs, J.;Ebmeier, S. K.;Aspinall, W. P.;Lu, Z.;Pritchard, M. E.;Sparks, R. S. J.;Mather, T. A.
火山学科学和灾害管理面临的一个关键挑战是，世界上很少有火山得到有效监测。卫星图像覆盖全球火山的整个喷发周期，不依赖地面监测，提供了适合于将变形与喷发联系起来的概率分析的数十年档案。在这里，我们显示，在过去18年系统观察的198座火山中，有54座变形，其中25座也爆发了。为了评估火山爆发的可能性，变形火山也爆发的比例很高（46%），加上没有爆发的非变形火山的比例（94%），共同代表了具有“强大”证据价值的指标。使用一个更大的目录540火山观察3年，我们展示了这种喷发变形关系是如何受到构造，岩石学和火山因素的影响。卫星技术正在迅速发展，预计将从空间对所有火山的变形状况进行例行监测，这意味着概率方法将越来越多地为灾害决策和战略发展提供信息。 变形经常被用于火山监测，但相关的危害很难解释。比格斯等人分析了20年的全球卫星数据，并显示出变形和火山爆发之间有很强的统计联系，尽管变形本身并不一定是即将爆发的前兆。
A key challenge for volcanological science and hazard management is that few of the world’s volcanoes are effectively monitored. Satellite imagery covers volcanoes globally throughout their eruptive cycles, independent of ground-based monitoring, providing a multidecadal archive suitable for probabilistic analysis linking deformation with eruption. Here we show that, of the 198 volcanoes systematically observed for the past 18 years, 54 deformed, of which 25 also erupted. For assessing eruption potential, this high proportion of deforming volcanoes that also erupted (46%), together with the proportion of non-deforming volcanoes that did not erupt (94%), jointly represent indicators with ‘strong’ evidential worth. Using a larger catalogue of 540 volcanoes observed for 3 years, we demonstrate how this eruption–deformation relationship is influenced by tectonic, petrological and volcanic factors. Satellite technology is rapidly evolving and routine monitoring of the deformation status of all volcanoes from space is anticipated, meaning probabilistic approaches will increasingly inform hazard decisions and strategic development. Deformation is often used in volcano monitoring, but the associated hazard is hard to interpret. Biggs et al. analyse 20 years of global satellite data and show a strong statistical link between deformation and eruption, although deformation alone is not necessarily a precursor of imminent eruption.
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DOI：
10.1144/sp380.2
发表时间：
2013-01-01
期刊：
REMOTE SENSING OF VOLCANOES AND VOLCANIC PROCESSES: INTEGRATING OBSERVATION AND MODELLING
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ebmeier, S. K.;Biggs, J.;Amelung, F.
通讯作者：
Amelung, F.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Chaussard, E.;Amelung, F.;Aoki, Y.
通讯作者：
Aoki, Y.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Amelung, F;Day, S
通讯作者：
Day, S
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Biggs, J.;Bastow, I. D.;Lewi, E.
通讯作者：
Lewi, E.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Gonzalez, Pablo J.;Samsonov, Sergey V.;Sansosti, Eugenio
通讯作者：
Sansosti, Eugenio