Identification of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature influences of Upper Colorado River Basin snowpack
Identification of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature influences of Upper Colorado River Basin snowpack
复制标题
科罗拉多河流域上游积雪对太平洋海面温度影响的识别
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Piechota
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oubeidillah Aziz;G. Tootle;S. Gray;T. Piechota
鉴于上科罗拉多河流域（UCRB）积雪作为美国西南部径流（供水）主要驱动因素的重要性，太平洋气候驱动因素的识别（例如，海表温度（SST）的变化）可能被证明是有价值的长期提前预报积雪在这个关键地区。之前的研究工作已确定厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和太平洋十度涛动（PDO）是美国西部积雪的主要驱动因素，但这些驱动因素对区域（犹他州和科罗拉多）UCRB积雪的影响有限。目前的研究首次将奇异值分解（SVD）统计方法应用于太平洋SST和美国大陆积雪，以确定UCRB积雪的主要太平洋气候驱动因素。SST的使用消除了对具体气候信号的任何“偏见”。SVD的第二个模态识别了UCRB积雪区（科罗拉多和犹他州）和相应的太平洋SST区。在34°N-24°S和150°E-160°W之间的“非ENSO/非PDO”太平洋SST区域被确定为UCRB积雪的主要驱动因素。为了确认UCRB积雪结果，来自科罗拉多和犹他州13个未受损（或归化）流量计的数据被用来评估和支持积雪的调查结果。最后，一个新的和有益的数据集（美国西部3月1日，4月1日和5月1日雪水当量）的开发，这可能是在未来的研究工作中使用。
Given the importance of Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) snowpack as the primary driver of streamflow (water supply) for the southwestern United States, the identification of Pacific Ocean climatic drivers (e.g., sea surface temperature (SST) variability) may prove valuable in long‐lead‐time forecasting of snowpack in this critical region. Previous research efforts have identified El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadel Oscillation (PDO) as the main drivers for western U.S. snowpack, but these drivers have limited influence on regional (Utah and Colorado) UCRB snowpack. The current research applies for the first time the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical method to Pacific Ocean SSTs and continental U.S. snowpack to identify the primary Pacific Ocean climatic driver of UCRB snowpack. The use of SSTs eliminates any “bias” as to specific climate signals. The second mode of SVD identified a UCRB snowpack region (Colorado and Utah) and a corresponding Pacific Ocean SST region. A “non‐ENSO/non‐PDO” Pacific Ocean SST region between 34°N–24°S and 150°E–160°W was identified as being the primary driver of UCRB snowpack. To confirm the UCRB snowpack results, data from 13 unimpaired (or naturalized) streamflow gages in Colorado and Utah were used to evaluate and support the snowpack findings. Finally, a new and beneficial data set (western U.S. 1 March, 1 April, and 1 May snow water equivalent) was developed, which may be used in future research efforts.