Fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with applications to Kunming city, China
Fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with applications to Kunming city, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-017-3007-z
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发表时间：
2017-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
J. Andrić;D. Lu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Andrić;D. Lu
我国由于特殊的地理位置，地震活动频繁，可能造成重大的社会和经济损失。地震危险性分析的任务是估计未来地震可能产生的地面运动参数的潜在水平。提出了一种基于模糊逻辑技术和概率方法的地震危险性分析方法。在FPSHA中，我们采用模糊集的地震震级和震源到站点的距离，和模糊推理规则的地面运动衰减关系的量化。基于专家判断给出了地震震级和震源距的隶属函数，基于专家判断建立了地面峰值加速度关系的模糊规则。这种方法能够在地震危险性分析过程中考虑偶然性和认识上的不确定性。该方法的优点是高效、可靠、实用、精确。本文以中华人民共和国云南省昆明市为例，进行了地震危险性分析。所提出的基于模糊逻辑的模型的结果进行比较，其他模型，这证实了预测超过一定水平的峰值地面加速度的概率的准确性。研究结果可为云南省减灾防灾决策提供依据。
China is prone to highly frequent earthquakes due to specific geographical location, which could cause significant losses to society and economy. The task of seismic hazard analysis is to estimate the potential level of ground motion parameters that would be produced by future earthquakes. In this paper, a novel method based on fuzzy logic techniques and probabilistic approach is proposed for seismic hazard analysis (FPSHA). In FPSHA, we employ fuzzy sets for quantification of earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance, and fuzzy inference rules for ground motion attenuation relationships. The membership functions for earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance are provided based on expert judgments, and the construction of fuzzy rules for peak ground acceleration relationships is also based on expert judgment. This methodology enables to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the process of seismic hazard analysis. The advantage of the proposed method is in its efficiency, reliability, practicability, and precision. A case study is investigated for seismic hazard analysis of Kunming city in Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China. The results of the proposed fuzzy logic-based model are compared to other models, which confirms the accuracy in predicting the probability of exceeding a certain level of the peak ground acceleration. Further, the results can provide a sound basis for decision making of disaster reduction and prevention in Yunnan province.