Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region
Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region
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DOI：
10.1002/2014jb011751
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Bird, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carafa, Michele M. C.;Barba, Salvatore;Bird, Peter
我们提出了一个正在进行的岩石圈变形的新构造模型，并相应地估计了非洲-欧亚大陆板块边界，包括东大西洋，地中海地区和欧洲大陆的长期浅层地震活动。GPS和应力数据是不存在或不足的部分研究区覆盖的水。因此，我们选择了一个动态模型的基础上的应力平衡方程，这种方法使我们能够估计岩石圈的长期行为（给定某些假设的结构和物理）的陆地和海洋地区。我们首先更新现有的板块模型，增加五个准刚性板块（爱奥尼亚海，阿德里亚，北方希腊，希腊中部，和马尔马拉），以约束变形模式的研究区域。我们使用最新的数据集来估计岩石圈结构。与更新的大地速度和最压缩的水平主应力方位角的数据集进行比较，该模型进行了评估。我们发现，侧边和基底强度驱动今天的运动的亚得里亚海和爱琴海板块，而岩石静压力起着关键作用，在驱动安纳托利亚。这些发现为大地中海地区的新构造提供了新的见解。最后，首选的模型被用来估计长期的浅层地震活动，我们回顾性地测试对历史地震活动。作为对不完整的地质数据或历史地震目录的依赖的替代方案，这些新构造模型有助于预测长期的地震活动性，尽管在将地震活动率用于地震灾害目的之前需要进行额外的调整。
We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasirigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent data sets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated data sets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.