Moving forecasts forward
Moving forecasts forward
复制标题
向前推进预测
DOI：
10.1111/nph.16838
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
9.4
通讯作者：
DeMarche, Megan L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DeMarche, Megan L.
预测物种将如何受到气候变化的影响是生态学家当今面临的最大挑战之一。全球范围内已发布了数以千计的物种预测，这些预测共同构成了气候变化对生物多样性总体影响的全球估计的基础（例如 Thomas 等人，2004 年）。然而直到最近，物种预测（主要考虑单一物种范围内的气候生态位）与种群研究（一再表明种内气候耐受力存在巨大差异）之间还存在脱节（Jump & Peñuelas，2005 年综述；Bocedi 等人，2013 年）。例如，特定物种的种群或生态型可能会适应当地的气候，因此它们在不同的气候条件下表现最佳，从而导致整个物种范围内对气候变化的反应多种多样。这种气候响应的种内变化可能会极大地改变物种层面对未来气候表现或分布的预测（图1）。然而，相对较少的研究将种内变异纳入预测，而且大多数研究都是基于观测的发生模式，而不是可靠的实验数据，因此人们呼吁采用更好的方法将种内变异纳入物种预测（Valladares 等，2014；Peterson 等，2019；Smith 等，2019）。在本期《新植物学家》中，Patsiou 等人（2002 年；第 525-540 页）迎接了这一挑战，提出了一种创新方法，将气候耐受性的实验估计与仔细的模型验证相结合，以探索阿勒颇松（Pinus halepensis）的生态型将如何响应当地和整个物种范围的预测气候变化。研究一再表明气候耐受性存在强烈的种内差异……将种内变异纳入物种预测的主要挑战之一就是获取有关气候耐受性在整个物种范围内如何变化的数据。大多数预测都是基于物种发生记录和历史气候数据之间的相关性，这些数据用于估计物种的气候生态位（即物种分布模型（SDM）；Franklin，2009）。尽管许多物种的发生数据很容易获得，但它们并不
Forecasting how species will be impacted by climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing ecologists today. Thousands of forecasts have been published for species across the globe and, together, are the basis of global estimates of the overall impact of climate change on biodiversity (eg Thomas et al., 2004). Yet until recently, there has been a disconnect between species’ forecasts, which largely consider a single species-wide climate niche, and population studies, which have repeatedly shown strong intraspecific differences in climate tolerance (reviewed in Jump & Peñuelas, 2005; Bocedi et al., 2013). For example, populations or ecotypes of a given species may be locally adapted to climate, such that they perform best under different climate conditions, resulting in a mosaic of responses to climate change across a species’ range. This type of intraspecific variation in climate responses could dramatically alter species-level forecasts of performance or distribution in future climates (Fig. 1). However, relatively few studies have included intraspecific variation in forecasts, and most have been based on observational patterns of occurrence rather than robust experimental data, leading to calls for better approaches to include intraspecific variation in species forecasts (Valladares et al., 2014; Peterson et al., 2019; Smith et al., 2019). In this issue of New Phytologist, Patsiou et al.(2002; pp. 525–540) meet this challenge, presenting an innovative approach that combines experimental estimates of climate tolerances with careful model validation to explore how ecotypes of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) will respond to forecasted climate change locally and throughout the species range.‘... there has been a disconnect between species’ forecasts, which largely consider a single species-wide climate niche, and population studies, which have repeatedly shown strong intraspecific differences in climate tolerance...’One of the main challenges to including intraspecific variation in species’ forecasts is simply obtaining data on how climate tolerances may vary throughout a species’ range. Most forecasts are based on correlations between species’ occurrence records and historical climate data, which are used to estimate a species’ climate niche (ie species’ distribution models (SDMs); Franklin, 2009). Although occurrence data are readily available for many species, they do not