The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions
The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1061020
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发表时间：
2001-05-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Anderson, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferguson, NM;Donnelly, CA;Anderson, RM
我们对该病毒传播的前两个月进行了对英国当前的口腔疾病流行的分析。估计病原体的净传播潜力和控制措施的增加，据估计在迄今流行病的过程中。这些结果用于参数化疾病传播的数学模型，该模型捕获了施加运动限制之前和之后的农场之间不同空间接触模式。该模型用于对未来发病率进行预测，并模拟其他控制策略的影响。预计将动物的屠杀降低会减慢流行病的速度，但更剧烈的作用，例如围绕“环”剔除或疫苗接种；感染焦点，对于更快的控制是必不可少的。预计剔除比疫苗接种更有效。
We present an analysis of the current foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain over the first 2 months of the spread of the virus. The net transmission potential of the pathogen and the increasing impact of control measures are estimated over the course of the epidemic to date. These results are used to parameterize a,mathematical model of disease transmission that captures the differing spatial contact patterns between farms before and after the imposition of movement restrictions. The model is used to make predictions of future incidence and to simulate the impact of additional control strategies. Hastening the slaughter of animals with suspected infection is predicted to slow the epidemic, but more drastic action, such as "ring" culling or vaccination around;infection foci, is necessary for more rapid control. Culling is predicted to be more effective than vaccination.