Simulation studies of African horse sickness and Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)
Simulation studies of African horse sickness and Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/jmedent/33.3.328
复制
发表时间：
1996-05-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Mellor, PS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lord, CC;Woolhouse, MEJ;Mellor, PS
开发了西班牙非洲马病的模拟模型，以研究哪些因素影响病毒引入后流行的可能性。该模型包括 2 种宿主物种（马和驴）和 1 种媒介物种（库蠓）。拉丁超立方抽样用于模型的敏感性分析，以包括参数估计的不确定性。一般来说，如果发生流行病，大多数宿主都会被感染。蠓的峰值流行率较低，从未超过 3%。蚊子的种群规模、马匹的康复率以及一年中病毒引入的时间是决定是否发生流行病的最重要因素。两次吸血间隔的不确定性、传染性马匹的清除率（死亡率和康复率）、蠓种群规模和传播率是影响疫情规模的重要因素。这些因素应成为实证研究的重点，并在有病毒传入风险的地区设计控制策略时应予以考虑。
A simulation model of African horse sickness in Spain was developed to investigate what factors affect the likelihood of an epidemic after the introduction of the virus. The model included 2 host species (horses and donkeys) and 1 vector species (Culicoides imicola Kieffer). Latin hypercube sampling was used for sensitivity analysis of the model, to include uncertainty in parameter estimates. In general, if an epidemic occurred most hosts were infected. The peak prevalence in midges was low, and never exceeded 3%. Midge population size, the recovery rate in horses, and tile time of year when the virus was introduced were the most significant factors in determining whether or not an epidemic occurred. The uncertainty in interbloodmeal interval, removal rate (mortality and recovery) of infectious horses, midge population size, and transmission rates were significant factors in the size of the epidemic. These factors should be priorities for empirical research, and should be considered in the design of control strategies in areas at risk of virus introduction.