Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza
Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1125237
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发表时间：
2006-04-21
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Grenfell, BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Viboud, C;Bjornstad, ON;Grenfell, BT
量化传染病的远距离传播是其动态和控制的一个关键问题。在这里，我们使用流感相关的死亡率数据来分析美国过去30年中大流行性流感的州际进展。疫情显示出层次空间传播，这一点由人口较多的州之间较高的成对同步性所证明。流感死亡率较高的季节与疾病传播率较高和传播速度较快有关。感染的区域传播与人们往返工作场所（工作流程）的速度比与地理距离的关系更密切。工作流依次描述的重力模型，与通勤的快速衰减高达约100公里和罕见的较长范围的流的长尾。一个简单的流行病学模型，重力公式的基础上，捕捉到观察到的流感空间同步性与传播性的增加;高传播使流感迅速蔓延，超越当地的空间限制。
Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.