The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach
The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11113-019-09516-3
复制
发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Berghammer, Caroline
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beaujouan, Eva;Berghammer, Caroline
我们研究了19个欧洲国家和美国基于队列方法的预期和实际生育率之间的总差距。这补充了以前主要使用周期方法的研究。我们比较了20至24岁年轻女性（出生于20世纪70年代初）的平均计划生育数量，这是在20世纪90年代生育和家庭调查中测量的，与40岁左右相同队列中完成生育的数据。以类似的方式，我们比较了声明不想要孩子的人与实际无子女群体的比例。我们的探索是由Bachrach和Morgan开发的生育意图的认知社会模型提供信息的（Popul Dev Rev 39（3）：459-485，2013）。在所有国家，平均而言，妇女最终生育的子女少于其出生队列中早先的预期，而且她们往往没有子女。结果揭示了不同的区域模式，这在无子女方面最为明显。在南欧和德语国家，计划生育与实际生育之间的差距最大，而在中欧和东欧国家，差距最小。此外，我们还分析了不同教育水平的妇女之间的总意图生育差距。在所研究的大多数国家中，受过高等教育的妇女之间的差距差距最大，教育梯度因地区而异，最明显的是无子女。国家之间的差异表明，背景因素规范关于父母，工作家庭政策，失业塑造妇女的生育目标，家庭总规模，以及它们之间的差距。
We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior research that had mainly used a period approach. We compare the mean intended number of children among young women aged 20 to 24(born in the early 1970s), measured during the 1990s in the Fertility and Family Surveys, with data on completed fertility in the same cohorts around age 40. In a similar manner, we compare the share who state that they do not want a child with actual cohort childlessness. Our exploration is informed by the cognitive-social model of fertility intentions developed by Bachrach and Morgan (Popul Dev Rev 39(3):459-485, 2013). In all countries, women eventually had, on average, fewer children than the earlier expectations in their birth cohort, and more often than intended, they remained childless. The results reveal distinct regional patterns, which are most apparent for childlessness. The gap between intended and actual childlessness is widest in the Southern European and the German-speaking countries and smallest in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, we analyze the aggregate intentions-fertility gap among women with different levels of education. The gap is largest among highly educated women in most countries studied and the educational gradient varies by region, most distinctively for childlessness. Differences between countries suggest that contextual factors-norms about parenthood, work-family policies, unemployment-shape women's fertility goals, total family size, and the gap between them.