Solar forcing of the stream flow of a continental scale South American river.
Solar forcing of the stream flow of a continental scale South American river.
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DOI：
10.1103/physrevlett.101.168501
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发表时间：
2008-10
影响因子：
8.6
通讯作者：
P. Mauas;E. Flamenco;A. Buccino
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Mauas;E. Flamenco;A. Buccino
太阳对气候的强迫作用已经在一些研究中得到报道，尽管迄今为止的证据仍然不确定。在这里，我们分析了世界上最大的河流之一，南美洲东南部的巴拉那河的流量。在过去的世纪，我们发现一个很强的相关性与太阳黑子数，在几十年的时间尺度，并与较大的太阳活动对应较大的流流量。相关系数r=0.78，显著性达99%。在较短的时间尺度上，我们发现与厄尔尼诺现象有很强的相关性。这些结果是洪水预测的一个步骤，这可能会产生巨大的社会和经济影响。
Solar forcing on climate has been reported in several studies although the evidence so far remains inconclusive. Here, we analyze the stream flow of one of the largest rivers in the world, the Paraná in southeastern South America. For the last century, we find a strong correlation with the sunspot number, in multidecadal time scales, and with larger solar activity corresponding to larger stream flow. The correlation coefficient is r=0.78, significant to a 99% level. In shorter time scales we find a strong correlation with El Niño. These results are a step toward flood prediction, which might have great social and economic impacts.