Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York
Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-020-02932-x
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发表时间：
2020-11-26
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Lin, Ning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marsooli, Reza;Lin, Ning
海平面上升 (SLR) 和热带气旋 (TC) 气候变化可能会影响牙买加湾（纽约的一个城市化后屏障海湾）未来的洪水灾害，但其复合影响尚不清楚。本研究估计了从二十世纪末历史时期（1980-2000年）到二十一世纪中后期（RCP8.5温室气体浓度情景下的2030-2050年和2080-2100年）SLR和TC气候变化对牙买加湾洪水灾害的复合影响。洪水重现期是根据大量合成 TC 的水动力模型模拟的 SLR 和峰值风暴潮的概率预测来估计的。我们发现，未来的洪水灾害将大幅增加，例如，历史上的100年一遇的洪水水位将在21世纪中后期变成9年和1年一遇的洪水水位，500年一遇的洪水水位将变成143年和4年一遇的洪水水位。这些增加主要是由 SLR 引起的。然而，热带气旋气候变化将在很大程度上导致未来低概率、高后果的洪水水位（重现期大于100年）的增加，这可能是由于到21世纪末出现缓慢移动但强烈的热带气旋的可能性增加。我们进一步对一系列 SLR 和 TC 场景进行高分辨率沿海洪水模拟。由于SLR预测的超标概率为5%，20世纪末125年和1300年一遇的洪水事件将分别变成21世纪末74年和515年一遇的洪水事件，牙买加湾沿海洪泛区洪水的空间范围将分别增加近10倍和4倍。此外，SLR 会导致海湾中的 TC 引发更大的表面波浪，这表明与波浪上升、侵蚀和沿海基础设施损坏相关的危害可能会增加。
Sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology change could impact future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay-an urbanized back-barrier bay in New York-yet their compound impacts are not well understood. This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980-2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030-2050 and 2080-2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario). Flood return periods are estimated based on probabilistic projections of SLR and peak storm tides simulated by a hydrodynamic model for large numbers of synthetic TCs. We find a substantial increase in the future flood hazards, e.g., the historical 100-year flood level would become a 9- and 1-year flood level in the mid- and late-twenty-first century and the 500-year flood level would become a 143- and 4-year flood level. These increases are mainly induced by SLR. However, TC climatology change would considerably contribute to the future increase in low-probability, high-consequence flood levels (with a return period greater than 100 year), likely due to an increase in the probability of occurrence of slow-moving but intense TCs by the end of twenty-first century. We further conduct high-resolution coastal flood simulations for a series of SLR and TC scenarios. Due to the SLR projected with a 5% exceedance probability, 125- and 1300-year flood events in the late-twentieth century would become 74- and 515-year flood events, respectively, in the late-twenty-first century, and the spatial extent of flooding over coastal floodplains of Jamaica Bay would increase by nearly 10 and 4 times, respectively. In addition, SLR leads to larger surface waves induced by TCs in the bay, suggesting a potential increase in hazards associated with wave runup, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure.