Anticipated Banking Panics
Anticipated Banking Panics
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预期的银行恐慌
DOI：
10.1257/aer.p20161089
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Andrea Prestipino
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Gertler;N. Kiyotaki;Andrea Prestipino
我们建立了一个具有银行不稳定性的宏观经济模型。太阳黑子运行可能会对经济造成危害。然而，运行均衡是否存在取决于基本面。与早期的工作相反，太阳黑子运行的概率是基于基本面的理性预测的结果。该模型捕捉到了从慢到快的运行，这是大衰退的一个特征：银行资产负债表的削弱增加了运行的可能性，导致储户从银行提取资金。这些缓慢的运行对经济产生有害影响，并为快速运行奠定基础。
We develop a macroeconomic model with banking instability. Sunspot runs can arise that are harmful to the economy. However, whether a run equilibrium exists depends on fundamentals. In contrast to earlier work, the probability of a sunspot run is the outcome of rational forecast based on fundamentals. The model captures the movement from slow to fast runs that was a feature of the Great Recession: A weakening of banks' balance sheets increases the probability of a run, leading depositors to withdraw funds from banks. These slow runs have harmful effects on the economy and set the stage for fast runs.