Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China
Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China
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DOI：
10.3390/jcm9020571
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Rost, Gergely
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boldog, Peter;Tekeli, Tamas;Rost, Gergely
我们开发了一种计算工具来评估中国境外新型冠状病毒爆发的风险。我们估计了一个国家因输入性病例而爆发大规模疫情的风险对关键参数的依赖性，这些参数包括：（i）中国大陆在封闭地区以外的累计病例数的演变;（ii）目的地国家与中国的连通性，包括基线旅行频率、旅行限制的影响以及目的地入境筛查的有效性;以及（iii）目的地国控制措施的效力（以当地再生产数Rloc表示）。我们发现，在与中国连通性较低但Rloc相对较高的国家，降低疫情风险的最有利控制措施是通过入境筛查或旅行限制进一步减少其输入数量。连通性高但Rloc低的国家从进一步降低Rloc的政策中受益最大。处于中间的国家应该考虑将这些政策结合起来。对美洲、亚洲和欧洲选定的几组国家的风险评估作了说明。我们调查了他们的风险如何取决于这些参数，以及随着中国病例数量的增加，风险如何及时增加。
We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number Rloc). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high Rloc, the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low Rloc benefit the most from policies that further reduce Rloc. Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.