Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East
Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East
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DOI：
10.1007/s00181-017-1402-7
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发表时间：
2017-12
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
A. Maghyereh;Basil Awartani;Osama D. Sweidan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Maghyereh;Basil Awartani;Osama D. Sweidan
本文提供了石油价格不确定性对约旦和土耳其真实的经济活动影响的经验证据，时间为1986：01-2014：12。为了衡量不确定性的影响，本文结合了一个双变量结构VAR的GARCH均值过程，允许石油波动性影响工业生产的增长。我们的研究结果表明，石油市场的不确定性对约旦和土耳其的工业产出产生了负面影响。例如，石油价格不确定性的一个标准误差的增加与约旦和土耳其的工业生产分别下降0.81%和1.01%有关。此外，与最近的经验证据相一致，我们发现，产出增长增加/减少后，负/正的石油价格冲击。这些结果意味着，减轻石油市场不确定性影响的合理能源政策可能有助于稳定两国的产量。
This paper provides an empirical evidence on the influence of oil price uncertainty on the real economic activity in Jordan and Turkey during the period 1986:01–2014:12. To measure the effect of uncertainty, the paper combines a bivariate structural VAR with a GARCH-in-mean process that allows oil volatility to affect the growth of industrial production. Our results indicate that oil market uncertainty has a negative influence on the industrial output of Jordan and Turkey. For instance, the increase in one standard error of oil price uncertainty is found to be associated with a decline of 0.81 and 1.01% in the industrial production of Jordan and Turkey, respectively. Moreover, consistent with the recent empirical evidence, we find that output growth increases/decreases after a negative/positive oil price shock. These results imply that sound energy policies that mitigate the effect of oil market uncertainty may help in stabilizing output in both countries.