Predictive Policing: Review of Benefits and Drawbacks
Predictive Policing: Review of Benefits and Drawbacks
复制标题
预测性警务：优点和缺点回顾
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Martijn Wessels
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Meijer;Martijn Wessels
摘要本文通过文献综述阐明了预测性警务的概念，以及其潜在的和实现的好处和缺点。审查显示了相当大的关注预测性警务的潜在好处和缺点在文献中的差异，和经验证据，是可用的。经验证据几乎没有为预测性警务所声称的好处提供支持。虽然一些实证研究得出结论，预测性警务战略导致犯罪减少，其他人发现没有效果。与此同时，根本没有经验证据证明所声称的缺点。我们的结论是，目前的推力预测警务举措是基于令人信服的论据和轶事证据，而不是系统的实证研究。我们敦促研究界对积极和消极的期望进行独立测试，为预测性警务提供证据基础。
ABSTRACT This literature review illuminates the conceptualization of predictive policing, and also its potential and realized benefits and drawbacks. The review shows a discrepancy between the considerable attention for potential benefits and drawbacks of predictive policing in the literature, and the empirical evidence that is available. The empirical evidence provides little support for the claimed benefits of predictive policing. Whereas some empirical studies conclude that predictive policing strategies lead to a decrease in crime, others find no effect. At the same time, there is no empirical evidence at all for the claimed drawbacks. We conclude that the current thrust of predictive policing initiatives is based on convincing arguments and anecdotal evidence rather than on systematic empirical research. We urge the research community to do independent tests of both positive and negative expectations to generate an evidence base for predictive policing.