The moon and El Nino
The moon and El Nino
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DOI：
10.1029/2000gl012117
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Shaffer, JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cerveny, RS;Shaffer, JA
世界各地的区域气候表现出与18.61年最大月球赤纬(MLD)周期相对应的周期。我们认为这些周期是由MLD和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)之间的关系造成的。赤道太平洋海面温度和南太平洋大气压力都与月球最大赤纬高度显著相关。低最低密度与赤道太平洋海面温度升高和南方涛动指数为负值有关。受月球影响的太平洋环流变化为解释这些关系提供了一个可行的物理机制。我们认为，在高MLDs下，环流被潮汐作用力增强，导致冷水平流进入赤道地区，但受到低MLDs的弱潮汐强迫的限制，从而有利于厄尔尼诺事件的发生。利用这种关系的天文模型预测，在本十年的早期，非厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜或中性)活动将会增加。
Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61-year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar-influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing coldwater advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Nino episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non-El Nino (either La Nina or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.