Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity
Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1220228110
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发表时间：
2013-06-04
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Ferrier, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Blois, Jessica L.;Williams, John W.;Ferrier, Simon
“空间换时间”替代是生物多样性建模中广泛使用的一种方法，它可以从当前的空间格局中推断出生态系统过去或未来的轨迹。然而，基本的假设，即物种组成的空间梯度的驱动程序也驱动多样性的时间变化很少被测试。在这里，我们实证测试的空间为时间的假设，通过构建正交数据集的组成营业额的植物类群和气候的差异，通过时间和空间的晚第四纪花粉记录在北美东部，然后建模气候驱动的组成营业额。依赖于空间换时间的预测与“时间换时间”预测的准确率相似，为72%。然而，时空替代表现不佳，在全新世时，气候的时间变化相对于空间变化较小，需要二次采样，以配合的空间和时间的气候梯度的程度。尽管有这种谨慎，我们的研究结果一般支持明智地使用空间换时间的替代建模社区对气候变化的反应。
"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption-that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity-rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were similar to 72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.