Climate change impacts and costs to US electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure
Climate change impacts and costs to US electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-15
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Martinich, Jeremy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fant, Charles;Boehlert, Brent;Martinich, Jeremy
这项研究对气候变化对美国输配电基础设施的影响进行了筛选级分析。特别是，该模型确定了电线杆和变压器等物理基础设施的性能和寿命的变化，并从经济角度量化了这些影响。这项分析针对美国本土进行了评估，使用两种温室气体排放情景下的五种大气环流模型（GCM），分析从基线期到本世纪末三种不同适应策略的损害和成本变化。基础设施总成本显着上升，每年气候变化支出增加高达 25%。结果表明，气候影响可能会很大，尽管该分析仅涵盖了总潜在影响的一部分。与不采取适应措施的情况相比，积极主动的适应战略到 2090 年预计气候变化成本将减少 50%。美国各地的影响各不相同，东南部和西北部部分地区的影响最大。该分析的改进和扩展将有助于更好地为未来的气候弹性政策和公用事业级规划提供信息。 (C) 2020 作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版
This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.