State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6
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发表时间：
2019-03
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
J. Schewe;S. Gosling;C. Reyer;Fang Zhao;P. Ciais;J. Elliott;L. François;V. Huber;H. Lotze;S. Seneviratne;M. V. van Vliet;R. Vautard;Y. Wada;L. Breuer;M. Büchner;D. Carozza;Jinfeng Chang;M. Coll;D. Deryng;A. de Wit;T. Eddy;C. Folberth;K. Frieler;A. Friend;D. Gerten;L. Gudmundsson;N. Hanasaki;A. Ito;N. Khabarov;Hyungjun Kim;P. Lawrence;C. Morfopoulos;C. Müller;Hannes Müller Schmied;R. Orth;S. Ostberg;Y. Pokhrel;T. Pugh;G. Sakurai;Y. Satoh;E. Schmid;T. Stacke;J. Steenbeek;J. Steinkamp;Q. Tang;H. Tian;D. Tittensor;J. Volkholz;Xuhui Wang;L. Warszawski
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作者：
J. Schewe;S. Gosling;C. Reyer;Fang Zhao;P. Ciais;J. Elliott;L. François;V. Huber;H. Lotze;S. Seneviratne;M. V. van Vliet;R. Vautard;Y. Wada;L. Breuer;M. Büchner;D. Carozza;Jinfeng Chang;M. Coll;D. Deryng;A. de Wit;T. Eddy;C. Folberth;K. Frieler;A. Friend;D. Gerten;L. Gudmundsson;N. Hanasaki;A. Ito;N. Khabarov;Hyungjun Kim;P. Lawrence;C. Morfopoulos;C. Müller;Hannes Müller Schmied;R. Orth;S. Ostberg;Y. Pokhrel;T. Pugh;G. Sakurai;Y. Satoh;E. Schmid;T. Stacke;J. Steenbeek;J. Steinkamp;Q. Tang;H. Tian;D. Tittensor;J. Volkholz;Xuhui Wang;L. Warszawski
全球影响模型代表了对自然和人类系统如何受到气候变化影响的过程层面的理解。它们的预测用于气候变化的综合评估。在这里，我们第一次在许多重要的系统中系统地测试这些影响模型如何捕捉极端气候条件的影响。使用2003年欧洲热浪和干旱作为未来可比事件的历史类比，我们发现大多数模型低估了农业，陆地生态系统和与热有关的人类死亡率等重要部门的影响的极端性，而对水资源和水电的影响被高估在一些河流流域;跨模型的传播往往很大。这对依赖这些模型的气候变化影响的经济评估具有重要意义。这也意味着未来极端事件的社会风险可能比以前想象的要大。
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.