Ocean-atmosphere partitioning of anthropogenic carbon dioxide on centennial timescales
Ocean-atmosphere partitioning of anthropogenic carbon dioxide on centennial timescales
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gb002810
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发表时间：
2007-03-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Dutkiewicz, Stephanie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goodwin, Philip;Williams, Richard G.;Dutkiewicz, Stephanie
本文提出了一个在百年时间尺度上人为二氧化碳的海洋-大气分配理论。大气CO2分压（P-CO2）与海气平衡时的外部CO2输入（Delta Sigma C）的关系为：P-CO2 = 280 ppm exp（Delta Sigma C/[I-A + I-O/R]），其中I-A、I-O和R分别是大气CO2存量、海洋溶解无机碳存量和海水Revelle缓冲因子的工业化前值。这个分析表达式进行了测试，两个和三个盒子的海洋模型，以及一个版本的马萨诸塞州理工学院大气环流模型（MIT GCM）与恒定的流通领域，并发现是有效的，至少有10%的准确度低于4500 GtC的排放量。这种关系提供了一个稳定的水平，P-CO2达到一个给定的排放量，直到大气中的碳减少风化的时间尺度。根据麻省理工学院的大气环流模型，未来的碳排放量必须限制在700 GtC的总量，以实现P-CO2稳定在目前的瞬态水平。
A theory for the ocean-atmosphere partitioning of anthropogenic carbon dioxide on centennial timescales is presented. The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 (P-CO2) is related to the external CO2 input (Delta Sigma C) at air-sea equilibrium by: P-CO2 = 280 ppm exp(Delta Sigma C/[I-A + I-O/R]), where I-A, I-O, and R are the pre-industrial values of the atmospheric CO2 inventory, the oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon inventory, and the Revelle buffer factor of seawater, respectively. This analytical expression is tested with two- and three-box ocean models, as well as for a version of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MIT GCM) with a constant circulation field, and found to be valid by at least 10% accuracy for emissions lower than 4500 GtC. This relationship provides the stable level that P-CO2 reaches for a given emission size, until atmospheric carbon is reduced on weathering timescales. On the basis of the MIT GCM, future carbon emissions must be restricted to a total of 700 GtC to achieve P-CO2 stabilization at present-day transient levels.