Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
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DOI：
10.1111/rssa.12867
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发表时间：
2022-05-26
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Donnelly, Christl A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Parag, Kris, V;Thompson, Robin N.;Donnelly, Christl A.
摘要统计数据通常来自简化的流行病传播模型，为公共卫生政策提供实时信息。瞬时繁殖数R-t在这些统计数据中占主导地位，它衡量了感染繁殖的平均能力。然而，R-t没有编码时间信息，并且对建模假设很敏感。因此，一些人提出流行病增长率r(t)，即对数变换后病例发病率的变化率，作为更具时间意义和与模型无关的政策指南。我们检验这一断言，确定r(t)的估计是否以及何时比r -t的估计更有信息量。我们评估了它们在了解病原体传播机制和实时指导公共卫生干预方面的相对优势。
The Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, R-t, is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, R-t encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, r(t), that is, the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of r(t) are more informative than those of R-t. We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time.