Season-Dependent Forecast Skill of the Leading Forced Atmospheric Circulation Pattern over the North Pacific and North American Region*
Season-Dependent Forecast Skill of the Leading Forced Atmospheric Circulation Pattern over the North Pacific and North American Region*
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00522.1
复制
发表时间：
2012-04
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Xiaojing Jia;Hai Lin;June‐Yi Lee;Bin Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiaojing Jia;Hai Lin;June‐Yi Lee;Bin Wang
摘要：分析多模式集合（MME）季节预报，以评估数值模式在预测温带北半球（NH）主要强制大气环流模式方面的性能。结果表明,通过对热带北半球500 hPa位势高度(Z500)和热带太平洋海温之间的最大协方差分析(MCA)获得的热带太平洋主导海表温度(SST)耦合大气格局(MCA1)的时间演化,可以很好地预测3-5月(MAM)、6-8月(JJA)和12-2月(DJF)一个月的时间演变。前面。然而，大多数模型在捕获 9 月至 11 月 (SON) 8 月 1 日初始条件下 MCA1 的时间变化方面表现不佳。确定了模型 SON 技能较低的两个可能原因。首先，这些模型在赤道中太平洋沿海温和降水的平均状态具有最明显的误差。由于两者之间的联系...
AbstractMultimodel ensemble (MME) seasonal forecasts are analyzed to evaluate numerical model performance in predicting the leading forced atmospheric circulation pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH). Results show that the time evolution of the leading tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST)-coupled atmospheric pattern (MCA1), which is obtained by applying a maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) in the extratropical NH and SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can be predicted with a significant skill in March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA), and December–February (DJF) one month ahead. However, most models perform poorly in capturing the time variation of MCA1 in September–November (SON) with 1 August initial condition. Two possible reasons for the models’ low skill in SON are identified. First, the models have the most pronounced errors in the mean state of SST and precipitation along the central equatorial Pacific. Because of the link between t...