The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom
The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom
复制标题
气候变化对英国各地风暴潮的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Gregory
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Lowe;J. Gregory
沿海洪水通常是由极端事件引起的，比如风暴潮。在本研究中，改进的物理模型已被用于模拟气候系统和风暴潮，并预测大气中温室气体浓度增加对风暴潮的影响。与以前的研究一致，这项工作表明，大气风暴的变化和21世纪末预测的更高的时间平均海平面将导致相对于当前潮汐的测量水位高度的变化。然而，这些预测的细节与早先的评估有些不同。未来极端水位预估的不确定性源于未来温室气体排放量和排放时间的不确定性、用于模拟气候系统的物理模式的不确定性以及该系统的自然变率。总的不确定性尚未被可靠地量化，实现这一点应该是未来研究的优先事项。
Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.